Toronto is ahead of plan
The NBA’s All-Star Game is regarded as the season’s half-way point; it isn’t, of course, more like two-thirds. Regardless, there’s a convenient break in the action, so we can examine what’s happened so far, and what the final 25 games might bring. The Raptors have compiled a 32-25 mark, which means my pre-season forecast of a 36-46 season is a mortal lock to be a big miss. While I don’t use emojis in this blog, if I did, a smiley face would be appropriate about now; I’m happy our team is performing better than expected. People like me can only take their best guess, and when the number of pleasant surprises outnumber the other kind by a large margin, we’re going to be wrong. First let’s consider the positives.
Ranking the good stuff
In order of importance to the Raptors success, I list the biggest surprises as:
- The return to All-Star form of Pascal Siakam –Without his offensive leadership (5.2 assists PG is fantastic), the Raptors modest offense would rival OKC’s as the league’s worst. And he’s played some dandy defense.
- The continued development of Fred VanVleet – One of the great rags-to-riches tales in Toronto sports history. Fred is a 3-point threat as soon as he steps over the time line, and a defensive menace to anyone he’s guarding, even the biggest guys.
- A rookie, Scottie Barnes, becoming an impact pro in about 20 minutes – I liked him pre-draft, though I wanted the Raptors to trade down to the #7 spot and pick Jonathan Kuminga. Instead, Masai got his (very young!) man, and the sky’s the limit. He’s made some mistakes, but never looks overmatched, and his offensive repertoire is far in advance of what I expected.
- Gary Trent’s deadly shooting, and superb, harassing defensive play – He’s looked comfortable in Raptors colours from the day he arrived. I had him pegged as a sixth man, but he’s too good for that role. If we ever get a starting-grade center, there are going to be some monumental position battles. Assuming Gary is our shooting guard of the present and future, who sits between Scottie and OG? Or is Gary a sixth man after all?
- Chris Boucher becoming a more complete player – He deserves a lot of credit for not remaining in a funk when his 3-point shooting deserted him early. Instead, he buckled down, and made himself a useful player near the rim. I hope Masai brings him back.
- Turning Kyle Lowry’s desire to be traded into rotation-grade players – Kyle could have walked for nothing, but Masai and Bobby Webster worked out a sign-&-trade with Miami. Precious Achiuwa will need care and feeding, but the physical attributes are in place. And now Thaddeus Young has arrived, hopefully for more than just the rump of this season.
…and the biggest disappointments
- The failure of so many bench players to emerge as contributors – I’m not able to put my finger on why Malachi Flynn has lost Nick Nurse’s trust. The sophomore guard certainly hasn’t shot the ball well, but that’s a function of playing time. Ditto Yuta Watanabe. Sadly, Svi Myhailiuk seems out of chances. Would you like to know how many 3-balls he’s made in 2022? Zero. Precious is consistently inconsistent, but I suspect the team is committed to him, and willing to endure his learning curve.
- The inability, or unwillingness, of team management to add the size and toughness this roster needs – I’ve beaten this topic into unconsciousness. Suffice it to say I was greatly saddened to see Marvin Bagley end up in Detroit. Enes [Kanter] Freedom, anyone? The ‘you could drive a tank through it’ -sized hole in the roster is evident to everyone, which means should a talented big man go on the market, the price will be through the roof. And of course every team with a dominant big man (cf., recent games facing The Joker and JV) will exploit the paint.
leading to a final record of…
The Raptors will end the season with 45 wins and 37 losses. That result will be (barely) enough to slide into sixth place, and thus avoid the play-in tournament. Toronto’s first-round opponent will be Cleveland; there’s little reason to believe the Cavaliers’ big-man centric squad is faking its huge improvement from last season. And that will have to do for predictions today.
- Tags: Masai Ujiri, Toronto Raptors
