The Toronto Raptors face the Miami Heat in the second game under (inside?) the Orlando bubble for both teams. Miami turned their first game from a nailbiter to a laugher with a huge second half. They wiped out the Denver Nuggets with balanced scoring ( 6 guys in double figures) and solid defence.
While the Nuggets are a wildly inconsistent team, and one game proves nothing, I firmly believe the Heat are for real. Their highly accomplished coach, Erik Spoelstra, has managed to plug a bunch of kids into his rotation with considerable success.
You can be forgiven if you don’t know who Duncan Robinson is, or what a preppie guy is doing as a starter for a contending NBA team. It’s a funny old world. Robinson is a late bloomer; although this is his first full season in the big league, he’s already 26.
Robinson is making up for lost time. He ranks fifth in 3-pointers attempted this season with 550, but has hit at a 44.7% rate, by far the best among his high-volume peers. Such accuracy boosts his Effective Field Goal Percentage [eFG%] to a startling 66.6%, third-highest in the league, and first among non-centers.
Regular readers at my former “home” know I’m skittish about most synthetic statistics, but eFG% is solid in my books. Here’s another meaningful stat: the Heat are fifth in percentage of points from 3-pointers, while our guys are third.
You can see where I’m going. This game will be decided from beyond the arc.
3 keys to Raptors victory
- Close out on their shooters. Well, duh. We didn’t see much of Chris Boucher in the Lakers victory, but I’d wager he’ll see significant floor time today. He is quick and long, and can be disruptive beyond the arc.
- Don’t ignore their big men entirely. The Heat feature a mobile, physical paint presence named Bam Adebayo, who won the Skills Challenge in February’s All-Star weekend. He will dish out lots of trouble for Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka.
- Get a decent performance from the second unit. The Heat have cobbled together an impressive rotation, including rookie gunner Tyler Herro, and veterans Goran Dragic, Andre Iguodala and Kelly Olynyk. Dragic comes off the bench only because of the formidable skills of combo guard Jimmy Butler. This is a strong team.
Forecast
I like Miami more than Boston or Philadelphia; the Heat have no holes. The Raptors will be in tough. However, our guys put away the Lakers with a terrific fourth quarter, and can do it again.
Raptors 110 – Heat 106.
