Is the newest Rap a lock for greatness?
The Toronto Raptors selected Gradey Dick with the #13 pick in Thursday’s NBA Draft. I applauded the pick as a happy reconciliation of team need (outside shooting!) and the best player available. Gradey was listed at around #10 on most of the Mock Draft lists I consulted, and on the most important one – mine, of course – he was #11. All well and good, right? Yes, but we need to pump the brakes a little. The history of collegiate gunners in the NBA doesn’t inspire confidence.
Jimmer Fredette was College Player of the Year in 2010-11, and arrived in the pros with great fanfare. His best season was as a rookie (never a good sign), and it was also the only time he averaged more than one made three-pointer (1.3 on 3.5 attempts). He disappointed five teams, washed out, and is playing 3 X 3. Then there’s Mississauga’s Nik Staukas. He too was highly touted, but bounced around, and is all but finished at the age of 29. Both of these fellows were drafted in the lottery (OK, OK – Jimmer was drafted by Milwaukee, but immediately flipped) by the overly-optimistic Sacramento Kings. Adam Morrison was supposedly to be a shooter, and a lot more, but turned out to be a lot less.
Are you glum yet? Don’t be
Pete Maravich, rockin’ the mid-70s disco hairstyle
Calm down Raptors fans. It’s not all bleak. ‘Pistol’ Pete Maravich had a fine pro career, though whether he would today might spark a fascinating debate. Jerry ‘Logo’ West was a brilliant collegian, and a Hall of Fame pro. Anyway, the key point here is that neither Fredette nor Stauskas flopped because they couldn’t make shots. Their career percentages from deep (37.2 & 35.4, respectively) aren’t dreadful. No, the issue is…they couldn’t take shots. Fredette averaged a pitiful 2.2 3-point attempts PG in his NBA career, while Stauskas comes in at 3.3. By contrast, Stephen Curry, the best 3-point shooter ever (and thus, the most heavily defended, though it doesn’t seem to slow him down much), has a career average of 9.0 attempts PG; Steph isn’t much taller than Jimmer, and is a lot shorter than Stauskas.
So how does this help us understand the possible value of Gradey Dick? I’d start with the idea that having another Splash Brother on the Raptors might proved hugely important to Gradey’s success. Steph is absurdly talented, but I suspect he’d be the first to acknowledge how important fellow gunner Klay Thompson has been to his success, and that of the Warriors’, over the years. Sometimes life is simple – if opponents double-team Steph, the ball ends up in Klay’s hands, and thence in the bucket.
The most likely candidate for the secondary catch-&-shoot role is OG Anunoby, although I’m sure Gary Trent would clamor for an audition. Sadly, neither Malachi Flynn nor Scottie Barnes appear likely to step up. Malachi looks in control when he shoots, but a career percentage of 33.5 releases him from consideration. Scottie’s feet are splayed, sometimes he jumps and sometimes not; bad form leads to bad results (29.0% career to date from deep).
Gradey displayed a quick release in college (not as quick as Steph, but nobody is), which is essential in the NBA. I’ve also seen clips of him taking sidestep threes when challenged, or dribbling past the defender for a mid-range deuce. Good stuff, young fella. He’ll need to do those things. Gradey has some moxie close to the rim, though I hope he doesn’t have much of an opportunity to display it. Coach Darko Rajakovic should discourage him from attacking the rim. Take-no-prisoners centers like Rudy Gobert, Steven Adams, the Lopez brothers, or Mason Plumlee, will flatten Gradey. He’s at least two seasons away from being strong enough to bang among the trees, and won’t be doing the Raptors any good if he’s injured.
The Wizards’ Corey Kispert, a model for Gradey Dick
We need to hope Gradey’s development will parallel that of Corey Kispert, another 6’7″ shooter drafted by Washington in 2021. While there was much hand-wringing during his rookie season, his sophomore results were much stronger. Kispert shot a most impressive 42.4% from deep on 5.2 attempts PG. I’m sure Wizards coaches are scheming how to increase his shots for 2023-24; his already-terrific success rate is unlikely to improve, and doesn’t need to. Note that Kispert is already 24, and a solid physical presence. Gradey is 19, and not.
There we have it. Gradey needs to:
- Be on the floor with a reliable secondary shooter.
- Avoid injury by staying away from the paint.
- Enjoy the patience of his coaches and teammates as he adds bulk and fills out.
Finally, the Raptors have had two players, Vince Carter and Scottie, who have been chosen the NBA’s Rookie of the Year. Gradey won’t be the third. Victor Wembanyama will suck up all the RoY oxygen. Our new guy needs to have modest goals, and work hard.
- Tags: Gradey Dick, Toronto Raptors
