Can we find a few positives in a dismal first ‘half’?
In what has been a period of dizzying change for our team, the Toronto Raptors, I want to look to the future. What has all the recent sturm und drang produced? I’m going to break this analysis in two parts, one to examine those on the bubble, and the other to review those who have contracts for next season.
The NBA has arrived at the All-Star break, after which the second half of the season will be upon us. The Toronto Raptors are in need of the time off, as a 19-36 record is glaring evidence of how disappointing this season has become. For them to reach my pre-season prediction of a 41-41 season, all the Raps have to do is win 22 of their final 27 games. I’m enjoying my visit to Fantasy Island – how about you? The reality of the situation is that the Raptors are rebuilding, and we fans are likely to endure at least two more seasons of sub-.500 hoops before the young players mature.
The roster has radically changed from Game One
The end of the bench has almost entirely been flipped. We have one greybeard, Garrett Temple, remaining, after the dumping of Thaddeus Young and Dennis Schroder (FWIW: I would have kept Spencer Dinwiddie, rather than waiving him. He might have been a useful tutor to the kiddie-corps guards. That said, there would be little reason to keep him around if he was determined to go to the Lakers. Anyway, the team is out from the burden of Schroder’s contract. He wasn’t a bad Raptor, but his timeline doesn’t jive with the team’s.)
Next year’s payroll is tiny at the moment. Gary Trent and Kelly Olynyk are UFAs (Unrestricted Free Agent), and Immanuel Quickley is Restricted. IQ told the New York press prior to his trade that he expected maximum money in his next deal. Whether he’ll get it from Masai Ujiri remains to be seen. IQ is a career 37.4% shooter, and has a pleasant 5.8:1.3 assist to turnover ratio in his 20 games in our colours. I would be comfortable retaining him at a four-year, $100 million deal, with bigger money in the later years.
Does Gary want to stick around during a rebuild, do we want him to, and has he earned a raise? The answers are: probably, 50-50, and No. Assuming we draft someone(s) of quality, and Bruce Brown (more on him soon) sticks around, I can see Masai taking a hard line at 3 years and a total of $ 60 million – if Gary can get more elsewhere, good for him.
Kelly is making just over $12 million, and will turn 33 in April. Would he be comfortable with providing a hometown discount, and return on a two-year, $16 million deal? I hope Masai offers it, though Kelly’s agent might urge him to join a team with serious championship aspirations.
Lots of people to cover!
Bruce Brown has a team option at $23 million for 2024-25. I’m not feeling this guy at the moment, though retaining a veteran swingman with a winning pedigree is valuable in theory. He’ll get his minutes the rest of the way. Let’s see what he does with them. I’m retaining my initial position, which that he’s an ideal sign-&-trade candidate. Or we could hang on to him, then move him to a team with stars in their eyes next trade deadline.
Jontay Porter will likely be offered a deal as well, though he’s already throwing up red flags. He won’t be the first NBA player to have his career aspirations destroyed by injuries. If he can’t stay on the floor, we’ll have to find someone who can. He’s no longer listed on the injury report. Presumably Jontay will get some meaningful burn after the All-Star break. Assuming he continues to produce, I’d bring him back.
Ochai Agbaji is on his third NBA roster, despite being only 23 years old. The Raptors seem to be high on him, for reasons which aren’t clear to me. He was a successful collegiate player, but there have been a lot of such guys (Christian Laettner, Ed O’Bannon, Jimmer Fredette, Adam Morrison) who flamed out in the pro game. Ochai possesses a great body, and strikes me as thoughtful and well-spoken. Those things are positives, but haven’t translated into impactful minutes to date. The Raptors appear to have a special interest in Ochai (likely because his father has known Masai for decades), and so may be patient with him. That means his ‘Team Option’ years will be picked up. Whether he can earn the trust of Darko Rajakovic is another matter. Beware the prospect whose best season was his rookie one.
For the sake of completeness, we need to mention Jordan Nwora and Justise Winslow. They both appear to be end-of-the-bench guys to me. I’d really like to see Winslow play some serious minutes, assuming he receives a second 10-day contract.
Garrett Temple? If he’s in Toronto next season, it will be with a clipboard in hand.
The rest of our squad will be examined tomorrow.
- Tags: Masai Ujiri, Toronto Raptors
